((Taiwan defence minister urges military build-up against China
Posted: 13 March 2007 0146 hrs

Lee Jye

TAIPEI : Taiwan's defence minister said on Monday the island needed to buy more advanced weaponry to counter the threat from rival China's rapid military build-up.
"The (China) military expansion has enabled Taiwan to gradually lose its air and naval superiority and posed a serious threat to Taiwan," Lee Jye was quoted by the state-financed Central News Agency as saying.
China will spend 350.9 billion yuan (about US$45 billion) on its military might in 2007, a rise of 17.8 percent from the previous year, Lee said in his report to parliament's defence committee.
China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has repeatedly threatened to invade the island should it declare formal independence.
Lee said China has stockpiled more than 900 ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at the island, with the number increasing at a rate of 75-100 per year.
China has also operated 20-odd military, surveillance and communications satellites, giving the People's Liberation Army the ability to keep a close eye on movement in the Taiwan Strait, he said.
The White House has expressed concern about China's hike in military spending, warning it was "inconsistent" with Beijing's policy of peaceful development.
Lee said Taiwan has failed to respond to the looming threat because of delays over a US$10 billion arms package for the island, which includes eight conventional submarines and 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft.
"The military balance between the two sides would further tip against Taiwan if there is no major breakthrough in the arms deal," he said.
Taiwan's parliament in December last year finally passed a bill allowing one of its committees to review the controversial arms package after it was blocked by the opposition 70 times.
To ease protests from the opposition, the ministry has scaled down the package from the original 16 billion dollars.
Some opposition lawmakers say Taiwan cannot afford the arms, while others say they would be delivered too slowly to enable the island to keep pace with China's military build-up.
Tensions between Taiwan and China have escalated since the independence-leaning Chen Shui-bian was elected president in 2000. He was narrowly re-elected in 2004. - AFP/de ))

It looks like the Taiwanese aren't stupid, but they are stubborn... opposition has constantly opposed to the defence package....not sure if they feel its beyond their means or the package isn't as good as it should be...or worse its due to politics.... but the Taiwanese Armed Forces are in a bad shape. Whatever hardware they have currently lacks behind the Chinese in both numerically and in some instances, technologically.... strange but true... they need to really correct this lopsided balance. They do have some missiles (SSM) which they claim they have created and can reach Chinese soil, but whether that is sufficient is another question. The Taiwanese sorely needs ASW assets in order to prevent Chinese naval blockade, better air superority and fighter jets (which can hang around longer and not need aerial refuelling), improved AEW and airborne command platforms, more subs and perhaps more smaller ASW / AS combat crafts which are more nimble than their huge warships.... my personal take....

The Taiwanese army is also in need of improved tanks and anti-tank missiles... In its case, the India Brahmos would be great defence against Chinese invasion....

Not to mention their submarines too... if i'm not mistaken they are still using two 50s era US-built diesel subs alongside their two Zwaardvis.

Their armored force of M48 pattons are easily outclassed by the modern tanks fielded by PRC

Go check it out, we have here a link where the hardware of the Taiwan iare "match" with those of Mainland China.

http://www.emeraldesigns.com/matchup/fighter.htm


Comments: Some of these matches are really not right.


Yeah, on point of ASW, Taiwan do have a big gap there.


Welcome your comments...

US to sell Taiwan 421 million US dollars worth of missiles

Published: Thursday March 1, 2007

The US Department of Defense has notified Congress that it plans to sell Taiwan missiles worth 421 million US dollars, which would help boost the island's defenses against rival China.
The proposed sale will include 218 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air missiles (AMRAAM), 235 Maverick missiles, as well as spare parts and maintenance equipment, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement.
"The proposed sale will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region," the agency said.
Acquisition of AMRAAM and Maverick missiles, a move sure to irk Beijing, will help Taiwan "modernize its armed forces and enhance its defence ability to counter air and ground threats," it said.
The missiles will be used to arm Taiwan's F-16 fleet, the backbone of its air force.
Taiwan for the first time in 2000 purchased from the United States 120 AIM-120s, which have a range of 50 kilometres (31 miles) and are equipped with advanced guidance systems.
But delivery of the weaponry was delayed to 2003 after China acquired weaponry of similar capabilities -- Russian-made AA-12 missiles.
China has repeatedly protested to the US over its policy of selling weapons to Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory to be reunified by force if necessary.
The United States is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weaponry in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act despite its switching of political recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/US_to_sell_Ta...o_03012007.html

Taiwan Test-Fires Cruise Missile Capable Of Striking China
Agence France-Presse | Mar 7, 2007

Taipei (AFP): Taiwan has test-fired a cruise missile capable of hitting rival China, it was reported Tuesday, amid fresh tensions across the region. The Hsiung-feng 2E (Brave Wind) cruise missile, currently capable of a range of 600 kilometres (360 miles), was test-fired at the southern Chiupeng missile base on February 2, the United Daily News reported, citing a military source.

The missile could be fired from land bases, airplanes or warships and has the ability to hit Shanghai or Hong Kong, the paper said, and its range could be increased to 1,000 kilometres. The defence ministry declined to comment on the report.

The report comes as tensions across the Taiwan straight have risen after President Chen Shui-bian pledged to push for independence and a new constitution earlier this week.

Chen told the pro-independence group Formosan Association for Public Affairs Sunday: "I want to say this again, 'four wants, one no'. That is, Taiwan wants independence, Taiwan wants to change its name, Taiwan wants a new constitution, Taiwan wants development."

"There is no such problem as left and right in the path of development but there is only the problem of independence and reunification," said Chen.

Chen, defence minister Lee Jye and another senior politician from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) witnessed the missile test, the report said without identifying sources.

"Some DPP legislators said they believe the (missile) deterrent had given President Chen confidence in saying 'four wants, one no,'" the report said, without naming sources.

Chen's comments appeared to mark a shift in policy that is certain to irk China -- which regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary -- and also drew criticism from the United States, wary of the risk of conflict.

Su Shuyan, a Chinese military representative in parliament, told reporters at the opening of the annual session of the National People's Congress: "We absolutely won't allow Taiwan to break away from China ... if Chen follows up his words with action, the People's Liberation Army can't just ignore it."

Washington called Chen's latest pledge to push for independence "unhelpful" and reiterated its stance against independence for the island.

Taiwan has produced three prototypes of a cruise missile which could be used to strike the east coast of China, Jane's Defence Weekly has said.

In an article in 2006, the authoritative weekly said Taiwan plans to produce 50 of the Hsiung Feng 2E missiles before 2010 and up to 500 after 2010.

China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should it declare formal independence, prompting the island to seek more advanced weaponry to defend itself.

Just throwing around a couple of scenarios, pardon if they sound simplistic :P

PRC Action -

If the PRC wants to force Taiwan to its knees, they don't need to invade
All they need to do is blockade Air and Sea, settle themselves in the Straits and lure ROC Air into a battle of attrition, and the ROC Navy sunburnt

But taking into account the US pacific forces, the PRC could attempt a fast landing.


US Action -

Would the US commit its 7th Fleet and MEU?

Can Japan afford to piss off PRC by allowing the a strike force to sail from Yokosuka?

Or would the USN deploy its pacific SSNs from Guam instead?

Would troops from SK's 8th Army be airlifted to ROC? The ROK presently can hold their own against NK


ROC Action -

The PRC is not likely to throw BMs the way of ROC, there are too much valuable assets - like the Hsinchu wafer fab facilities etc...

On the flip side, is ROC nuts enough to start throwing their missiles into Shanghai ( but mostly likely Fujian etc, killing their relatives as well as the sneaker industry ) ? Risking an escalation into uncontrolled annihilation?

Likely, the ROC would hunker down and has to deny a landing ...



Looking at these scenarios, What does ROC need?

Abit off topic here.

If I remember correctly, Taiwan supplies quite alot of those microelectronics parts to the world. Those small small resistors, capacitors, LED, computer chips etc. After the earthquake a number of years ago, there was a huge shortage of components from TW, raising electronic prices, and delaying shipment.

Manufacturing plants usually try to operate on Just-In-Time concepts, they do not keep much stock to reduce cost. Thus as they are tied quite closely to the world market, USA, Japan & Korean will intervene, as it will affect them.

In terms of military hardware, they are quite lacking, and could never get any proper arms procurement done. Which parliament session they don't fight one? :P

Taiwan's ASW capability is better than China's. While it has only 2 modern submarines, it has far more comprehensive equipment. First of all, ROCN has a big advantage in terms of surface vessel ASW capability. All the major ROCN surface combatants are equipped with towed arrays and are able to carry S-70 helicopters which are more capable than PLAN Z-9s. The ROCN vessels have also been upgraded with sonar performance prediction equipment.

The ROCN also has an area surveillance sonar capability with 2 low frequency active arrays (LFAS), one located north and another south of the island. Sonar arrays which provide area surveillance like the SOSUS are very important with regard to the use of airborne ASW assets like the S-2Ts that Taiwan has. It is near impossible for S-2Ts to go around dropping sonobouys all over the place to find subs - they have to be vectored in to areas where subs have been detected with the use of long ranged sensors, and then they will refine the sub's position. It was said that during the incident where the PRC nuke sub encroached Japanese waters, the Japanese P-3C was vectored in with info provided by the ROC.

Provided the ROC ASW/ASuW assets have at least localised Air and Surface Superiority to cover their ops.
Coz a hole in the hull is a great techno-gap equalizer :P

I agree, however that being said that ROC lacks the numerical factor of the equation. Therefore, they need to have certain assets which negate the PLAN's numerical edge.....ROCN would have to face the threat of Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles... therefore the planned package of the PC3s are a great offer, which they have yet to accept, together with the conventional subs.... in fact the Taiwanese need to acquire more aircraft given the fact that their current fleet would be considered to be less capable than the PLAAF when all the SU30s come on line and they pose serious threat to any airborne assets that the ROCAF would put up....though as mentioned that they are buying alot of AA missiles, but you still need aircrafts to launch them right? What do you think they would get? F15s perhaps?? Afterall the Americans would be more than happy to sell them their surplus or even extend the production line.... or even the more sophisticated F16C/Ds?? Or maybe the Swedish Gripens?? Its cheaper... As for land forces, as mentioned earlier, the Taiwanese Army / Marines need some newer and modern hardware... like some second hand Leo 2s... :lol: :D .... they could consider buying US surplus tanks...

I am sure if the Taiwanese were to approve of the current budget, the next one which the US would offer would definitely include planes and tanks....this is in light of the increase in China's military budget.... that's a good excuse for pushing the ROC hardware list up...

Cover for the Knoxes and the La Fayettes will be provided by the Kidds. The Kidds provide very good AAW capability, despite their age. China's SU-27SKs and SU-30s are hampered by lousy avionics, which prompted the Chinese to do a full upgrade to the airframe which resulted in the J-11. Only with the recent introduction of PL-12s did the Taiwanese see a threat to its ability to maintain air superiority, and that has resulted in a purchase of C7 models of the AMRAAM recently.

The level of foreign intervention could depend on how long the world would suffer a shortage of vital computer parts.

thanks for the insight :D

Will deployment of skybow and hsiung-feng on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu, Penghu be good enough as a first line of defence?
the first 2 are within arty range and could prove to be Alamos ...

I'm not sure the IDFs deployed on Penghu are a match for the PRC ....

The Penghu is at least 170km away from Chinese territory, which is well out of range of most Chinese artillery. Sure there are WS-1/2s, but how many of these do the Chinese have? Even these long range rockets will be stretched. Furthermore, they can only be used against fixed targets like airbases, not against relocatable targets like SAMs.

The IDFs seem to be fair fighters. Perhaps not as good as the F-16/Mirage 2000, but as point defense interceptors, I don't see them coming up short against the PLAAF for now. Though the ROC might have to pass their resolution to get more F-16s soon. The Taiwanese simply don't care much for their security.

As for the Kinmen installations... :huh: I guess having SAMs at the doorstep forces the Chinese to expend efforts to suppress them. Even then, unless they are sure that forces on Kinmen are eliminated, whatever actions taken by the Chinese side will have to account for any residual capability still possibily existing on the island. That may work to slow down the air ops tempo of the Chinese side.

You got that right bro.... the Taiwanese don't seem to bother much about their defences....I mean enough to make the necessary sacrifices... they seem to bother more about petty scabbles and scandals. They should seriously sit down to consider beefing up their defences asap cos' it takes time to build up....
Just some questions about their Knox class ships and their Kidd class ships... how are those compared to the PLAN ships? plus their Russian cruiser Sorvernomy class (pardon the spelling error)...how does it match up, though they aren't of similar category....

What's WS-1/2??

That's a problem created by the present administration, who are using the traditional whipping up of Nationalism to ensure their future election prospects and Chen Shui Bian's immunity from prosecution this term

South Korea, by comparision, changes gahman almost every term but have never lost control of national defence for the sake of political self preservation

The ROC F-16s, carries harpoons
Possibly ROC should acquire kongsberg penguins for them as well, I think PRC holds little sway over the Norwegians.

Exocets for the Mirage 2000-5 will be a good buy - I think presently the taiwanese have MICAs and Magics only, but I believe the MDBA have refused to sell BVR anti-shipping Otomats to ROC previously due to PRC pressure. But exocets have been known to be available thru shady 3rd parties... :lol:

The Hsiung Feng 3s, if there is more truth than hype, would be an equivalent weapon to the Sunburn.

My take - get more air anti-shipping missiles

PS adder -
Forgot about those versatile mavericks and air launched HF-2s , my apologies :(

The Kidds are probably more balanced a warship design (capabilities wise) than any other warship in PLAN inventory, and its AAW capability is definitely better than any every PLAN ship, except perhaps the 052C. No judgement can be made on the 052C since little is known about it, and having 4 phased arrays does not necessarily mean that it is better performance wise in AAW than the Kidd. At least the Kidd has a well tested system, while the 052C is still an unknown in terms of what potential problems may lie in the system. The Knoxes are primarily ASW assets, but they just got a self defense upgrade with the tacking on of 10 SM-1 launchers and associated equipment.

China's rocket artillery. Very long ranged. Worth googling to take a look. :)

Does any MN have news on the Kuang Hua VI missile boat program ?
Its carries 4 HsiungFeng 2 and there were plan for a fleet of 30
Relatively smaller than naval OPVs, like the Norwegian Hauks but less heavily armed

Seems no action after the launch of the 1st boat

Some articles here , but in Chinese

http://vm.rdb.nthu.edu.tw/cwm/taiwan/4407a.html

http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/war-since/artic...=617&l=f&fid=38

http://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/52935/4032913.html

I think Taiwanese should consider another tack in terms of upgrading their weaponary. They should consider buying off-the-shelf from Japan and Korea.

I would suggest the following to be considered:
1. Korean KDX-3 Destroyers
2. Japanese Oyashio Class submarines
3. Korean K1A1 tanks

As for the ROC AF, I would suggest them seeking to get the surplus Gripen from the Swedish instead of F-16 Blk 52+. At least they instantly get a 4 gen aircraft and no waiting period. I presume they would be a lot cheaper than the new built F-16 as well.

Latest news: Taiwan requesting France for restoration of Mirage 2000's ground attack capability.

The French clipped the ground attack capability of Taiwan's Mirage 2000?! :huh:

It is not easy for Taiwan to purchase arms and weapon systems from oversea. The fear of political and economical repercussion from China is more than enough for any country (except maybe US) to consider exporting it to Taiwan. That is why the Taiwanese relentlessly pursue to develop their own military hardwares, presumably with foreign assistance. Their indigenous fighter (cross bred of F16 and F18) and cruise missile program are good examples.

It is not a straight forward mean of just acquiring Gripen from Sweden. From what I know Gripen employed and utilised technologies originated from US. That mean Sweden will require US approval before the sales can materialise, or rather commencing sales and purchase negotiation. Do you really think Swenden is so out of mind to step on China's tail? :huh:

Oh, before I forget... The last thing the Korean and Japanese would want to do is to antagonise their immediate neighbour, PR China. :rolleyes:

Apparently so. I don't know the full extent to which the A2G capability of the Mirage 2000 was disabled, but it seems the air refueling capability was disabled when they were sold. I haven't found (or searched) for confirmation yet, though.

Wow! That is dangerous for the Taiwanese! Wondering if the US has scale down the capability of RoC AF's F16s Blk 20...

ROC's mirages currently carries Magic and MICA, But I don't see the French being ballsy enuff to sell Ah Bian any SCALPs, Armat, Exocets whatever ....
At least the F-16 Blk 20s can carry Mavericks, but I suspect they didn't getting the full MLU treatment from the US either

Gripen fits ROC's requirements, and the PRC should not have much influence over the Swedes. But unfortunately, the Gripen fires US munitions and the yanks are likely to block the sale to protect further the possible "yes,no,yes" sales of F-16s.

For tanks, there's always South Africa .... South Africa does not appreciate PRC dipping a hand in the African pie. Oilfant Mk1s with Mk2 turrets should be quite potent. Israel Sabra upgrades might not be available to the ROC nowadays, due to the cozying up between them and the PRC on the J-10.


I think ROC will not be able to get any naval hardware from Japan or Korea, the Euros and even Russians... their best bet could be non-aligned India's Delhi Class ...

Its true that the Swedes dont have much dealings with China....so I personally dont think that the Swedes would have any issues to sell the Gripens to ROC. Also, the ROC can fire Swedish made missiles right? So sell them the missiles too....afterall if the Swedes are selling aircraft and missiles, why not sell them their naval vessels, subs, SAMs, radars, surplus tanks etc too.... the Swedes do have an excellent defence industry.... what can the Chinese possibly do? flood the Swedish economy with cheap imitations of Ikea furniture? Or perhaps flood it with cheap shoes? the only thing being the point would be the Swedes internal controls over sale of such hardwares....

Just alittle off topic here;

Does anyone know if ROC has developed their own armour? I recall the timoney armoured vehicle but don't remember any MBTs.

Why is this as they have lots of indigenous SSMs, CM, IDF, PBs?

Anything from SAAB Bofors could be ok, but I think munitions that inv
olve MBDA/EADs or the Germans; might be a no no

Denel Aerospace has some missiles,standoff weapons and guided munitions, that will definitely be used with their gripens
There you go , another source of arms :lol:

Wheelies like the CM32 Cloud Leopard, mounting a 105mm ( but a Timoney design ) An MGS to replace the old walker bulldogs

No pure indigenous tracked vehicles that I can recall, except local made version of the M113 - CM21. They did a couple of kit bashing between M48s and M60s and some local upgradings

As to why - building a tank that has no export prospects, no scale of economy, and US interventation on Technology transfers - puts a real damper on things ... The IDF being one good example ...

but they have tackled the learning curve, and could do it. If there wasn't all these political problems caused by Ah Bian and his "fan" club ..

Just my take lah, on the other hand, it could be they just can't afford to make a mediocre indigenous MBT that costs a bomb, while it could be cheaper to buy from the South Africans, Ukrainians etc....

It could be that its much cheaper to buy off the shelve cos' there are many MBTs which would be more than a match for wat-ever PLA fields.....

There has not been much mention of ATGMs for the ROC army.... wondering wat type they are currently operating.... hopefully its not the WW2 bazooka that the Philippines are.... They should (for purely defensive reasons) have a good stockpile of these as it would really be an asset for repelling the PLA should it ever be able to gain a foothold on the island itself... But I suppose the most important hardware that the Taiwanese need is aircrafts, Surface-to-surface missiles and subs. These 3 items would make life very miserable for any Chinese invasion force planners....

(( TAIPEI : Taiwan plans to stage a series of live-fire war games from next month as part of efforts to assess its defence capabilities against bitter rival China, the defence ministry said on Tuesday.
The announcement came as President Chen Shui-bian cautioned against China's rapid military build-up and called for the purchase of more advanced weaponry from the United States, the island's leading arms supplier.
The planned manoeuvres codenamed "Han Kuang 23" (Han Glory) will be held between April and May, the ministry said.
Drills on the islands of Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu and in southern Pingtung county would aim to prevent enemy landings while exercises in the eastern county of Hualien would focus on defence of the airport there, it said.
"Hopefully this year's exercises could be done in a more practical way, like in a war," defence ministry spokesman Major General Wu Chi-fang said, adding that details have yet to be finalised.
China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has repeatedly threatened to invade the island should it declare formal independence.
In a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan on Tuesday, President Chen said China's military build-up posed a threat to Taiwan and the region.
"In the face of the fast military expansion of the authoritarian-ruled China... the arms build-up has exceeded its self-defence needs and seriously menaced the neighbouring countries," Chen said.
"As China is one-party ruled, and in order to divert its internal conflicts, it may launch an invasion. Such risk must not be ignored," he said.
China recently announced it would increase its military spending 17.8 percent to about US$45 billion in 2007.
Chen assured that Taiwan would beef up its self-defence capability while renewing a pledge first made in 2000 that he would not declare independence, change Taiwan's official name as the Republic of China or seek a referendum on independence.
Defence Minister Lee Jye said last week the island needed to buy more advanced weaponry to counter the threat from China's rapid military build-up, which he said had seen Taiwan gradually lose its air and naval superiority.
Lee said China had stockpiled more than 900 ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at the island, with the number increasing at a rate of 75 to 100 a year.
Washington has expressed concern about China's hike in military spending, warning it was "inconsistent" with Beijing's policy of peaceful development.
Tensions between Taiwan and China have escalated since the independence-leaning Chen Shui-bian was elected president in 2000. He was narrowly re-elected in 2004. - AFP/de ))

Well, they seem to have stirred abit....

ROC has AH-1W with Hellfires
Besides that they have TOW and Javelin

P.S. I think they are still operating the 106s as well, and mebbe the M67 90mm

An Article on Taiwan's submarine program being undermined by the US
original link is no longer working - unless you have a paid subscription to Defense News
The last I read of the sub deal was Lockheed-Martin talking to Navantia on a JV on the S80 (scorpene derivate ) for Taiwan.

The PRCs have little influence over the spanish. What can the PRCs do - ban Zara and Seat ? Latins do not take kindly to am twisting.

Not sure if this will pan out and doubtful about eventual tech transfer to ROC

=====================================================

13 February 2006 Monday
Defense News
Vago Muradian, Editor

U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

Come Clean On Subs

Alliances, like friendships, flourish only if both partners remain honest with each other. And when it comes to the U.S.-Taiwan alliance, it's high time that Washington came clean with Taipei.

The United States has no intention of making good on President George W. Bush's 2001 promise to sell eight advanced diesel submarines to the self-governing island, because Washington does not believe its ally can be trusted to keep American submarine technologies from the People's Republic of China. Instead of forcing the Taiwanese to run an obstacle course without a finish line, U.S. officials should just call the whole thing off.

U.S. concerns were reinforced by the stunning news Feb. 9 that U.S. prosecutors had indicted two men, one Taiwanese, the other French, for trying to sneak controlled U.S. weapons technologies into mainland China. Chosen "Bill" Moo, a Taiwanese consultant who helped sell U.S. arms to Taipei, is accused of conspiring to illegally export F-16 fighter engines, AH-64 Apache helicopter engines and cruise missile components.

Taiwan has long bought U.S. weapons. It owns F-16 fighters, attack helicopters, missiles, Aegis warships and other systems readily exported by Washington. But submarine technology does not fall into that category, though Taiwanese officials are growing desperate to update their decrepit fleet to face an increasingly bellicose and well-armed China.

Taiwan's drive for submarines started in 1969 with a 12-boat plan to defend against Chinese invasion. The U.S. rejected its initial request to lease four boats, but four years later agreed to sell two World War II subs. The Netherlands sold the island nation two, more advanced subs a decade later, but European nations, eager for a piece of China's massive economy, have since declined to take Taipei's money. Nor will Russia, which supplies subs to China, sell to Taiwan.

That leaves only the United States - and there are several reasons Taiwan will never sail another U.S. sub. First, the U.S. hasn't built diesel subs since 1959, when the Navy decided to go all-nuclear. Second, U.S. submarine officers privately fear that if an American shipyard did begin building conventionally powered boats, the production of more-capable nuclear boats would come to a halt once Congress saw a diesel sub's cheaper price tag.

So the U.S. Navy is taking pains to ensure that any proposed deal that might fulfill Bush's 8-sub promise will be unaffordable or unacceptable to Taipei.

Details are sketchy - not only to Taiwan, but U.S. industry executives as well - but this much is known: under the deal being crafted, eight subs could cost $12 billion and would be built without any Taiwanese industrial role. And yet U.S. officials are demanding the Taiwanese legislature commit to the program with upfront funding.

Taiwanese leaders have done their homework, and they aren't stupid. They know that eight top-of-the-line European subs would go for about $5 billion, and it's dawned on some in Taipei this isn't about money.

Worse, Taiwan's reluctance to underwrite this opaque shell game is being portrayed by some U.S. officials as evidence of Taipei's unwillingness to adequately defend itself. That's a hollow charge; Taiwan spends at least $8 billion on defense annually.

It's an example of the bully blaming the bullied for their plight, and it's a shameful way to treat an old ally.

And it sends a disturbing message as the United States tries to recruit new allies to fight its "long war" against terrorism and shape the course of "crossroads" states like China.



++++++++

The Taiwanese should shoulder the bulk of their own defense decisions and actions (action to seek, choose and buy the needed hardware).... as noted there are countries out there that wouldn't be affected by Chinese strong-arm tactics nor fear Chinese reprisals....eg - South Africa and Nordic countries.... So if the Taiwansese are really serious, am very sure they can approach them to supply the needed hardware....afterall the Taiwanese are rich!!

They could, but South Africa etc, doesn't have a Carrier Group nearby in Japan to back them up ....

But DCN did sell the M-2000s and Lafayettes, not considering the bribery scandal for the latter. Timoney and IAI played a part in AFVs and ASuMs. That was before PRC become an economic powerhouse.

On the other hand, those that are pressured by PRC not to sell, might be pressured by the US for the same reason...

Someone's Status Quo, could be your Limbo ....

China Could Potentially Defeat US In Conflict Over Taiwan By Limiting Military AccessBy Rand Corporation

Apr 2, 2007



China could potentially defeat the United States in a future military conflict over Taiwan by using strategies designed to limit U.S. military access to the area, according to a report issued today by the RAND Corporation.

The report examines scenarios in which China might employ what are known as “antiaccess� strategies – actions that would impede the deployment of U.S. forces into a combat zone, limit the locations from which American forces could operate, or compel the U.S. military to conduct operations farther from the conflict than it would prefer.

RAND researchers have identified a number of measures that U.S. forces can take in order to neutralize possible antiaccess strategies. These include: deploying air and missile defense systems near critical facilities; moving vulnerable ships out of port at the first sign of conflict; and reducing vulnerabilities in communications and computer systems.

Since China could also use political and diplomatic strategies aimed at jeopardizing access to forward bases in places such as Japan, researchers also recommend that U.S. strategists strengthen both the alliance relationships with such countries and their military and technological capabilities.

The most likely conflict between the United States and China would be over Taiwan, said lead study author Roger Cliff. Although the United States currently has an overwhelming conventional military advantage, China could accomplish the objective of forcing Taiwan to surrender by employing an antiaccess strategy of preventing enough U.S. forces from getting to the region in time.

Cliff and his fellow researchers noted that, since the end of the Cold War, U.S. strategists have become increasingly concerned that an adversary might adopt and attempt to employ strategies designed to interfere with the U.S. military's ability to deploy or operate in overseas conflicts.

Potential foreign adversaries like China are likely to use such strategies because it is improbable they could defeat the United States in a traditional military combat, the study says. Additionally, the absence of a single dominant adversary means the United States will have relatively few forward-deployed forces in the vicinity of a conflict before it erupts.

The study says potential Chinese antiaccess strategies include:

1. Pressuring American allies such as Japan to limit or deny the United States the use of bases on their territory in a conflict.
2. Striking or jamming information and computer systems to delay the deployment of U.S. military forces or to deny the United States access to information about enemy locations.
3. Disrupting U.S. logistics systems to prevent the timely delivery of supplies and delay the arrival of critical reinforcements.
4. Attacking air bases and ports to prevent or disrupt an influx of forces and supplies.
5. Attacking naval assets such as aircraft carriers to limit the U.S. ability to launch aircraft from the sea.

The net result of these strategies is that China could actually defeat the United States in a conflict ” not in the traditional sense of destroying the U.S. military, but in the sense of China accomplishing its military and political objectives while preventing America from achieving some or all of its objectives, Cliff said.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army is well aware of its own shortcomings and the United States' military superiority,Cliff said. Instead of engaging U.S. forces head-on, they would attempt to take advantage of what they perceive to be American weaknesses “ including the need to deploy and operate forces thousands of miles from home.

Researchers for RAND, a nonprofit research organization, examined Chinese military publications to determine what types of antiaccess strategies Chinese military analysts are considering employing. Most previous antiaccess studies relied on mirror imaging techniques, in which American analysts simply imagine what they would do if they were in China's position.

The research was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE, a federally funded research and development center for studies and analysis aimed at providing independent policy alternatives for the U.S. Air Force.

http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/wa...ss130011188.php

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These two strategies are potential flashpoints that concern us and our SLOCs. Much unlikely as it might sound, they can be considered under extreme interpretation to be attacks on our national interests and sovereignty.

Is this the reason we are building up a brown/green water RSN and giving the RSAF equipment to patrol the skies much further out than our local regions? Perhaps so, even if its not the main policy thrust..

Well,

USN Logistics Western Pacific, is headquartered at Changi Naval Base ....

PSA's Sembawang Terminal, actually. Not Changi Naval Base. ;)
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